U.S.-INDIA NUCLEAR DEAL - Twist in the tale?

The cautious and coordinated release of information regarding the final draft of civil nuclear agreement between the US and India has the leaderships, lobbyists, analysts, and media in both countries in a tizzy for the past one week. As the discussions on atoms for peace and trust between the two countries proceed in coming months, three sequential steps will play out – viz., informal political approval in India; formal approval by U.S. Congress; and, lastly lifting of sanctions on India by the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Each of these steps, though surmountable, comes with its typical nuance.

A historic deal that will significantly impact the world order in 21^st century – not immediately, but in incremental steps over time – the 123 agreement is yet in its birth pangs. The fast paced developments of last week, have however thrown up some very intriguing aspects – and this article attempts a speculative approach to the core issue of sanctions on India in case it tests a device in the future.

As of now, under the U.S. Atomic Energy Act, and the Hyde Act, there is no way that India can avoid sanctions if it conducts a test in the future. Sanctions will imply a cut-off of future cooperation, as well as the U.S. administration will be required to demand return of materials which are of U.S. origin. In such a scenario, how can the Indian government square with its people that its investment of billions of dollars, and energy supplies, will not be jeopardized if India conducts a test in future?

The Right-sourcing Strategy

The answer may lie in a simple but imaginative right-sourcing strategy – do not procure materials and equipment from the U.S. If India does not buy equipments and fuel from U.S. suppliers, then its investments and energy security are not dependent on any U.S. action subsequent to a test in the future. By procuring its supplies from countries other than the United States, India will insulate itself from the downside of U.S. sanctions, return of materials, and such.

In the absence of any other compelling rationale by the government of India to assure that its investments will not be prejudiced in the future, right-sourcing seems to be the only mechanism that will enable informal political approval of the 123 deal in India. Such a strategy to deepen strategic relations with the United States, yet not be dependent on U.S. supplies, will also dovetail neatly into India’s strategic worldview where it sees an emerging balance of powers in the global order of 21^st century.

The U.S. government may well be aware of this strategy, and its willingness to sacrifice narrow commercial interest of one particular industry in order to obtain a broader political and economic partnership with India may be unique in annals of American history, and speaks of the vision and stakes at hand.

In a world where the United States is faced with a mercurial Russia, an inscrutable China, the worldwide seepage of Islamic terror, and a schizophrenic and tottering Pakistan, there is simply no other nation with India’s size and democratic ethos to counterbalance the myriad challenges of the 21^st century. The overriding strategic context of the relationship with India is compelling enough for the U.S. administration to term the 123 deal as a matter of “national interest”.

The calculus for India

The Indian parliament is expected to discuss the nuts and bolts of the 123 agreement on the 13^th of August. With the issue of reprocessing seemingly resolved to mutual satisfaction, the only other issue of substance on which the right wing opposition, the government’s communist allies, and many amongst its own party, will zero in, will be the hypothesis of a nuclear test in future. A failure on the part of the government to satisfy the naysayers on this count will be disastrous since the issue can snowball with political and nationalist rhetoric.

The only way out for the Indian government to declare that it has not compromised its sovereign right to test, may then require it to articulate the above said right-sourcing strategy and thereby win their support for the deal. Once out of the dog-house, India can then mitigate its risk of U.S. sanctions by sourcing its fuel and equipments from nations other than the United States. Moreover it may look only at fuel supplies in the first instance, and source the equipments as and when needed.

As Robert Kennedy once famously said, one-fifth of the people are against everything all the time, but if more than that oppose the deal in India, then the government may have to spell out its right-sourcing strategy. Such a strategy also insulates Indian foreign policy from unforeseen pressures in future to align with U.S. on matters where it may hold divergent views. Successful passage of the 123 deal will catalyze unprecedented growth in strategic and economic relations between the two countries, while at the same time India will not be encumbered by a dependency which can influence its independent foreign policy.

The economics for Corporate America

There is no doubt that American business has been one of the main forces in favor of the deal, and India’s adoption of such a right-sourcing strategy might kick off a storm in corporate America. Such a response will be myopic, for, if the speculation is sound, then it is only the nuclear industry that may lose out, while the sum total benefit to all other industries from a newer paradigm of U.S.-India relations will easily outweigh the loss to American nuclear industry.

If, on the other hand, the government of India is not able to defend its case in the Indian parliament, then the whole deal may be off. Thus the economics for corporate America boils down to this – is it better to have a deal which would provide a major boost for American business in India, albeit without participation of American nuclear industry; or have no deal at all? This is not to say that the nuclear industry will completely miss the boat, for it can innovate and be a player in the Indian market – perhaps something like the Japanese nuclear industry which has structured so as to overcome its domestic compulsions, and still is a serious player in world markets.

Beyond the economic calculus, the 21^st century demands an overarching strategic calculus between nations – for how will the global markets thrive and entrepreneurs profit unless there is security and freedom in the markets? The 123 deal between the U.S. and India is a bold attempt to create a paradigm that will help peace in our homes, and ensure a more benign scenario for American, Indian, and other businesses to operate in free markets globally.

The era of atoms for peace is over – now it is about atoms for peace and trust.

U.S. SOCIETY - Dollars and Scents – the flowering of ethnics

On July 2, 2007, just weeks after announcing that they were ready to accept employment based visa applications from hundreds of thousands of legal immigrant professionals, many of whom have been waiting for years, the US Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) did a volte face and announced that their applications will not be entertained till further notice.

Voila, what else do you expect after this, but thousands of very disappointed professionals? And how do they express their utter frustration at this emotional roller coaster, and with the over 250 million US dollars that they pumped into the U.S. economy in various application costs and the medical expenses, legal fees, etc.? Well, they do so by taking the ideas of Mahatma Gandhi to the doorsteps of U.S. administration.

While mainstream America goes on with its business as usual, there is a refreshing whiff of diversity in its politics that is now blowing from the ethnics and enriching mainstream politics. A literal experience of this fragrance reached Emilio Gonzalez, the director of the USCIS, when his office in Washington, DC received flower bouquets by the hundreds on July 10^th, in a unique protest by the many affected in this flip flop by his department.

Gandhigiri and Reverse Gandhigiri

However, this Gandhigiri of legal immigrants was brilliantly countered by reverse Gandhigiri from the Director of USCIS, who issued a statement, saying, “I understand that individuals are planning to send flowers to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) beginning on Tuesday, July 10. USCIS has made arrangements to forward those flowers to our injured service members recuperating at Walter Reed Army Medical Center and at Bethesda Naval Hospital.” So it seems that USCIS too was inspired by Gandhi in saving its face and deflecting the onslaught of flower power.

This phenomenon is a unique display of cross-pollination of democratic thought across cultures wherein ideas rooted in the principles of Mahatma Gandhi, who led a life that exemplified the power of righteousness and its ultimate triumph, and shook an empire with his unique and non-violent protests, are being used to register a protest in a foreign culture in the 21^st century. And the target of protests too is using Gandhian principles to minimize damage – certainly a radical difference in a culture where lawsuits are the first recourse to any dispute.

This example of democratic innovation from an ethnic community in the U.S., for this protest is being led mainly by people of Indian origin, comes close on the heels of another milestone in mainstream American politics – the Indian American community contributed over three million dollars to Sen. Hilary Clinton’s campaign in last month, alone.

Dollars and Scents

The power of ideas is the oxygen of any democracy, and over the centuries the United States has vigorously nurtured an environment that fosters the flowering of democratic debate. Participation in this debate has often meant that interest groups coalesce to influence public policy – and more often than not, the mother’s milk of politics has been campaign finance.

When added to the fund raisers for other Democratic and Republican presidential candidates, June and July of 2007 will go down as historic months in which the Indian American community contributed the highest amount to presidential races; and brought the fragrance of Gandhian thought to mainstream America. This is a historic summer in which ethnics have contributed unprecedented dollars and ideas to American politics.

This globalized, multicultural, interconnected world is not a cliché – it is a reality, and the reality is hitting home with its dollars and scents. Political presidential candidates ranging from Senator Clinton to potentials like Newt Gingrich need to smell the coffee, or might we say flowers? While the contribution of dollars is very important, yet the thinking elite of America should take a few minutes to absorb and benefit from the power of democratic ideas too which are seeping into American polity by virtue of the presence of ethnics. These ethnics are bringing not only the familiar dollars and cents, but also newer forms of democratic messaging into American politics.

The ethnics bring not only their wallets to the fund raisers, but also their cultural prisms into American politics. The smart candidate goes not after their dollars, but seeks creativity and newer forms of democratic thought which could enrich American society and global communities. Ideas from ethnics may at times provide an innovative break from the groupthink of mainstream politics – in addition to spending millions of dollars on research on foreign policy, and hundreds of hours on foreign trips to understand foreign cultures, it may well benefit American leaderships to leverage the presence of ethnics in their own backyard.

Images and imagination flow across borders, and in the case of India, the much talked about film industry has at last produced a symbol that has inspired action in a foreign culture. Little did Emilio Gonzalez know that the hundreds of bouquets on his desk owed their origins to an India film, “Laage Raho Munna Bhai” – well now he surely does. The film, a spoof on the life and principles of Mahatma Gandhi, and advocating a funny bone approach to societal protest, has struck a chord amongst millions in India, and now is enriching American democracy by inspiring this unique protest.

Dollars in political contributions and the scents of ideas inspired by Gandhi – the ethnics are making sense in American politics.