The sale of advanced weapons and the F-16 flying machines by the U.S. to Pakistan seemed to be coasting along till it hit a bump this week. The questions posed by some lawmakers, including Tom Lantos and Joe Crowley, have brought to fore pertinent facts – yet even these questions do not address the full ramifications of the sale, and many eyes still remain wide shut on this whole issue.
One of the objections to the F 16 sale relates to procedural missteps, wherein the administration did not follow the usual norm of a 20-day pre-notification period, and consequently several lawmakers are miffed about this lapse. In the big picture of things this is no deal breaker. However, it is the other questions that are of larger import and a fuller public debate on these concerns will help to clarify the mist. Topping the list is the shadow of the so-called A.Q.Khan network and the web of proliferation it spawned. Rep. Lantos concerns that sensitive U.S. technologies can be passed to China because of Pakistan’s strategic relations with China are very valid, however, what about the possibility of transfer to other countries that benefited from the AQK network, including Iran and North Korea? In the absence of tangible proof that the channels of the said network are fully exposed and shut down, what is the guarantee that sensitive American technologies will not be transmitted into rogue hands by a newer or morphed version of AKQ Network 2.0?
Once past the AQK inquiry, the next line of questioning pertains to Pakistan’s internal stability and democracy. When the House of Representatives cut U.S. aid to Pakistan by a 374-34 vote in June 2006, it was in no small measure linked to its displeasure with “…increasing lack of respect for human rights, especially women’s rights, and the lack of progress for improving democratic governance and rule of law”. It beats common sense that a body of wise men that overwhelmingly finds Pakistan to be an unstable country is now contemplating sales of lethal weapons, and entrusting most sensitive technologies to such a regime. Eyes wide shut?
And this leads us into the third major concern – what is the need for these weapons? A recent report by the Congressional Research Service has clearly stated that that the single-engine Block 50/52 Falcon being sold to Pakistan is the most modern F-16 flown by the United States and may be better suited for air-to-air combat against India than fighting terrorists. Again, eyes wide shut?
The U.S. often cites that it needs to “reward” Pakistan for its cooperation as a front line state in the fight against terror, and that it needs to strengthen the hand of the Pakistani government. No issues with that. All stakeholders wish to see a strong, vibrant Pakistan that is able to curb the scourge of terror. The argument is with the solution proposed by Foggy Bottom, wherein it proposes to sell F-16s and advanced weaponry as the payback. The mandarins of American foreign policy are some of the most innovative and creative minds – one simply refuses to believe that they cannot craft an alternative solution that can make a genuine contribution to Pakistan’s sentiments, security, and the war on terror.
Next to the exhortation to Foggy Bottom to be more imaginative in its foreign policy formulations, is the question of why hasn’t there been a vibrant public debate on this whole issue? It is no longer about de-hyphenating the India-Pakistan context. By according the Most Favored Non-NATO Ally status to Pakistan, and by inking the civil nuclear deal with India, the U.S. has attempted to de-couple its strategic thinking about South Asia. However, it is now fumbling on how to reassure and equip Pakistan in its continuing fight against global terror.
It is not only the U.S. foreign policy that is fumbling, but also several other stakeholders appear to have been non-imaginative. To begin with, the Government of India – it could have articulated a stronger case, made more noise, hired more lobbyists in Washington, DC and gone to town opposing this deal. Seemingly, it did not. If the nuclear deal was worth US$ 2 million or so of Indian tax payers’ money so far in the fees for the two lobby firms hired by the Government of India, then why didn’t the F-16 sale merit any such investment by India?
The next important voice could have been of the Indian American community. The F 16 sale was brought to the notice of the U.S. Congress as long ago as spring of 2005. The Indian American community which went into an over-drive over the nuclear energy deal, and has made a mark for its sensitivities amongst U.S. lawmakers, seems to have been caught napping or ineffective in opposing the sale of the F 16s to Pakistan. Several of my good friends will oppose this characterization vigorously, and the schizophrenic side of me will agree with them that yes, we all did a lot to oppose the F16 transaction, yet it does not take away from the fact that we do need a wake up call with respect to the dangers of the proposed F 16 sale to Pakistan.
So, given a modicum of reasonableness, why did such sensible players fail to act in appropriate time? There are three broad reasons why it could have been so. Firstly, was there a strategic understanding, said and unsaid, between the governments of the United States and India, which somehow matrixed the F16 sale into a mutually comfortable zone? Or, secondly, India and the Indian American community somehow felt that the F16 sale was a fait accompli, and it was best to leave this matter aside, and leverage other synergies in U.S. – India relations (the community’s under-investment in research, communications, and think-tank vehicles of course did not help)? Or, thirdly, were both the Indian government and the Indian American community caught totally unawares, and served a googly by the U.S. administration? And, oh yes, as a footnote, where was the media?
Given the upcoming debate in the U.S. Congress on this important matter, and the openings provided by Lantos, Crowley, et al, it is extremely important that a public, wide, and imaginative discussion be undertaken to jolt U.S. foreign policy into crafting innovative solutions to Pakistan’s needs…lest we all walk eyes wide shut into a human catastrophe.
